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美国经济衰退是否已过半?  

2008-11-12 22:04:38|  分类: 次贷危机 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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在经济困难时期,投资策略师们总是用这样一种经验来安慰自己:一场衰退到了一半的时候,投资者就开始预期经济复苏了。投资者的这种态度会推高股市,随着经济好转,涨势会继续下去。

现在,投资者只剩下两个问题了:确定衰退是何时开始的,以及何时会结束。很多人认为衰退开始于第一季度前后。据美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)的数据,美国自1919年以来经历过16次经济萎缩,平均持续时间为13个月。

以此为标准,目前的这场衰退已经到了中点,甚至已经过半了,也就是说现在是买进股票的时候了。不过,不要操之过急。Federated Investors的股市策略师杜塞尔(Linda Duessel)说,如果这是一场普通的衰退,那么年底前就结束了;不过这却是一场更为严重的衰退,很有可能会持续到明年年底。

消费者信心动摇、借贷紧缩、房地产和汽车业前景黯淡,这些都表明此次衰退将比普通的衰退持续更长的时间,或许会达两年之久。这样的话,股票在未来几个月里仍不会是诱人的投资产品。而且由于衰退的结束时间只有在事后回顾时才能确定,投资者需要参考一下其他指标。比如,标准普尔500指数跌幅超过了46%,高于36.5%这一历史平均跌幅。

花旗集团(Citigroup)首席美国股票策略师列夫科维奇(Tobias Levkovich)说,标准普尔500指数以及波动和估值等其他指标结合起来是判断衰退的更好依据。他说,我理解学术界的做法,但它确实表明你正在作出现在无法证明、而只有在回头看的时候才能证明的假设。

David Gaffen

U.S. Recessions, 1980-2007: Most Declared Late

As debate over whether or not the U.S. is on the verge of a recession, we would remind investors that waiting for the economists to tell us we are in one is probably not the best advice.

The time-lines below highlight the four recessions in the US economy since 1980 (red line). In each chart we also show the date (blue dot) when the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] declared that the U.S. economy was actually in a recession.

While the NBER was pretty timely in its recognition of the recession that began in Summer 1981, they were late to the game in the remaining three. In fact, during the last two recessions, the NBER did not officially declare the start to a recession until the recession had already ended.

美国经济衰退是否已过半? - shu4huan4 - 蜗牛新壳

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Please also see:

BUSINESS CYCLE
REFERENCE DATES
DURATION IN MONTHS
Peak Trough Contraction Expansion Cycle
Quarterly dates
are in parentheses
Peak
to
Trough
Previous trough
to
this peak
Trough from
Previous
Trough
Peak from
Previous
Peak

June 1857(II)
October 1860(III)
April 1865(I)
June 1869(II)
October 1873(III)

March 1882(I)
March 1887(II)
July 1890(III)
January 1893(I)
December 1895(IV)

June 1899(III)
September 1902(IV)
May 1907(II)
January 1910(I)
January 1913(I)

August 1918(III)
January 1920(I)
May 1923(II)
October 1926(III)
August 1929(III)

May 1937(II)
February 1945(I)
November 1948(IV)
July 1953(II)
August 1957(III)

April 1960(II)
December 1969(IV)
November 1973(IV)
January 1980(I)
July 1981(III)

July 1990(III)
March 2001(I)
December 1854 (IV)
December 1858 (IV)
June 1861 (III)
December 1867 (I)
December 1870 (IV)
March 1879 (I)

May 1885 (II)
April 1888 (I)
May 1891 (II)
June 1894 (II)
June 1897 (II)

December 1900 (IV)
August 1904 (III)
June 1908 (II)
January 1912 (IV)
December 1914 (IV)

March 1919 (I)
July 1921 (III)
July 1924 (III)
November 1927 (IV)
March 1933 (I)

June 1938 (II)
October 1945 (IV)
October 1949 (IV)
May 1954 (II)
April 1958 (II)

February 1961 (I)
November 1970 (IV)
March 1975 (I)
July 1980 (III)
November 1982 (IV)

March 1991(I)
November 2001 (IV)
--
18
8
32
18
65

38
13
10
17
18

18
23
13
24
23

7
18
14
13
43

13
8
11
10
8

10
11
16
6
16

8
8

--
30
22
46
18
34

36
22
27
20
18

24
21
33
19
12

44
10
22
27
21

50
80
37
45
39

24
106
36
58
12

92
120
--
48
30
78
36
99

74
35
37
37
36

42
44
46
43
35

51
28
36
40
64

63
88
48
55
47

34
117
52
64
28

100
128

--
--
40
54
50
52

101
60
40
30
35

42
39
56
32
36

67
17
40
41
34

93
93
45
56
49

32
116
47
74
18

108
128

Average, all cycles:
1854-2001 (32 cycles)
1854-1919 (16 cycles)
1919-1945 (6 cycles)
1945-2001 (10 cycles)
 
17
22
18
10
 
38
27
35
57
 
55
48
53
67
 
56*
  49**
53
67
* 31 cycles
** 15 cycles

Source: NBER

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